Nov 28, 2009 11:07 am US/Central
Diabetes cases to double, costs to triple by 2034
CHICAGO (Sun-Times Media Wire) ―
In the next 25 years, the number of Americans living with diabetes will nearly double, to more than 44 million people, and over the same period, spending on diabetes will almost triple, to $336 billion, according to a report from University of Chicago researchers.
The number of those with diabetes covered by Medicare will rise from 8.2 million to 14.6 million, the researchers predict. Medicare spending on diabetes will jump from $45 billion to $171 billion.
The report is in the December issue of Diabetes Care, according to a release from the University of Chicago.
The report predicts those Americans living with diabetes will increase from 23.7 million in 2009 to 44.1 million in 2034, the release said. Over the same period, spending on diabetes will rise from $113 billion to $336 billion, even with no increase in the prevalence of obesity, the researchers found.
"If we don't change our diet and exercise habits or find new, more effective and less expensive ways to prevent and treat diabetes, we will find ourselves in a lot of trouble as a population," said the study's lead author Elbert Huang, MD, assistant professor of medicine at the University of Chicago.
"Without significant changes in public or private strategies," the authors wrote, "this population and cost growth are expected to add a significant strain to an overburdened health care system."
The new estimates are far more rigorous, and more troubling, than previous predictions.
The most recent and alarming prediction may even be a bit conservative. It is based on the assumption that the prevalence of the overweight and obese in the United States will remain relatively stable.
Although obesity levels have gone up steadily for many years, the authors predict that the obesity levels for the non-diabetic population will top out in the next decade, then decline slightly, from 30 percent today to about 27 percent by 2033. "Despite recent trends in obesity rates," Huang explained, "we anticipate that the population will reach an equilibrium in obesity levels, since we cannot all become obese."
The study was done to help forecast the impact of alternative policy scenarios as Congress debates changes in the health care system, particularly to Medicare. The National Changing Diabetes Program of Novo Nordisk, a maker of insulin, funded the study.
"The public policy implications are enormous," said co-author Michael O'Grady, PhD, senior fellow at the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. "This a serious challenge to Medicare and every other health plan in the country. The cost of doing nothing is the significant increase in the pain and suffering of America's population and a financial burden that will threaten the financial viability of public and private insurers alike."
(Source: Sun-Times Media Wire © Chicago Sun-Times 2009. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)
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