Campaign '08

CBS News political consultant Monika McDermott
(CBS) Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary by hanging tough with her base supporters in a state in which they are plentiful, even managing to beat back strong Obama support from a sizable block of newly registered Democrats.

The biggest story of the evening, however, may be the polarized electorate that turned out to vote. Pennsylvania's Democratic primary results, while smaller than the lead Sen. Hillary Clinton once had over Sen. Barack Obama in the state, show an electorate consistently divided on factors like education, race and income and also newly divided along religious lines.

Divisions

The Pennsylvania Democratic primary shared many of the same vote characteristics of other primary states this season - with Clinton winning her core base of union members, less educated and lower income voters and rural voters, and Obama winning voters with more education and income, and black voters.

What made Pennsylvania different, however, is the consistency of these traditional gaps as well as the appearance of some new divides. With intense media coverage of Obama's recent statements regarding small town voters, and a consistent characterization of him as an elitist both by the media and by the campaigns of Clinton and John McCain, these pre-existing social divides grew larger in this first contest since the story broke.

In the primary Clinton received 71 percent of the vote from white members of labor union households, leading Obama by a striking 43 points. In contrast, Clinton won a smaller proportion of the white non-union vote, still besting Obama by 57 percent to 43 percent. This union vote is in stark contrast to the union vote in Ohio, one of the most recent and similar contests. In Ohio Clinton received 67 percent of the white union vote, and 62 percent of white non-union vote. This demonstrates a more polarized electorate by union status in Pennsylvania than Ohio.

This pattern of division repeats itself among other groups that have been important in past contests. White Democratic voters making less than $50,000 a year supported Clinton with 66 percent, compared to 58 percent support from those making over $50,000 a year. Obama received 24 percent and 42 percent respectively.

There was a 19 point preference gap between the less educated and the more educated in Pennsylvania primary voting. Clinton won 75 percent of the vote from white Democrats with a high school diploma or less - three times Obama's vote among these voters - compared to 56 percent of those with more education.

While these traditional gaps were just as strong, if not more so, in Pennsylvania, they were not the only gaps to be found. Perhaps related to Obama's comments about small town voters and religion, Pennsylvania's voters demonstrated a clear religious gap in candidate preference.
Clinton did much better among Pennsylvania's religious white voter than did Obama, and than she did among the non-religious. Sixty-nine percent of white voters who attend religious services more than once a week supported Clinton, while 31 percent supported Obama. In sharp contrast, among those white voters who do not attend religious services, Obama received a 52 percent majority of the vote, compared to 48 percent for Clinton.

In addition to religiosity, religious affiliation also had a large impact on the Pennsylvania vote. In a white electorate that was 41 percent Catholic, Clinton carried Catholics with 71 percent of the vote. She won 75 percent of the vote of white Catholics who attend church weekly. Clinton won white Protestants as well, although with a much smaller margin - 59 percent to 41 percent for Obama.

Obama showed gains among the non-religious since Ohio. In Pennsylvania he won 61 percent of white agnostics (those with no religion), compared to only 42 percent in Ohio. Among those who do not attend religious services Obama won 40 percent of the vote in Ohio, but captured 52 percent today in the Keystone state. Here again Pennsylvania voters demonstrated a pattern of polarization in candidate choice.

Race was also as equally polarized as it has consistently been. Obama won 89 percent of the black Democratic primary vote.

New Voters

Part of Obama's ability to close the large lead Clinton initially had in Pennsylvania was a concerted voter registration effort - one which paid off for him. Among today's Pennsylvania Democratic voters 14 percent reported that they had newly registered as Democrats. Among these new Democratic voters Obama bested Clinton by 20 points - 59 percent to 39 percent.

These new Democratic voters fit a distinct profile - that of typical Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of this group are voters between the ages of 18 and 29. These young voters made up only nine percent of those already registered, and as Democrats. The new voters were also more likely to label themselves as independents. Thirty-six percent of the new voters called themselves independents, compared to only 11 percent of other voters. In addition, one quarter of these voters were from the Philadelphia suburbs, compared to 16 percent overall.

Looking to the Future

As the primary competition between Clinton and Obama continues, many pundits are speculating on the effect of the prolonged contest on the party's chance is November. And while up to now many have argued that the contest has not done lasting damage, voters in Pennsylvania certainly noted a nasty turn.

Four in ten Pennsylvania Democrats said that both candidates had attacked the other candidate unfairly during the campaign. In contrast, in Ohio only 29 percent of voters felt that way. In addition, another 25 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats feels that Clinton has attacked unfairly and seven percent feel Obama has. Only 23 percent of voters feel that neither attacked the other unfairly.

At the same time, however, the proportions of voters who would be satisfied with either candidate as the party's nominee remain at recent levels. Seventy-one percent say they would be satisfied with a Clinton nomination, and 64 percent would be satisfied with an Obama win.

In general election match-ups with John McCain, Obama's voters are the more accepting of either situation - 69 percent would support Clinton against McCain. In contrast, only 52 percent of Clinton's Pennsylvania supporters report they would support Obama against McCain in the general election. Again, Pennsylvania's voters represent the polarization, possibly increasing, that we have seen this primary season.

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