Oct 15, 2008 4:00 pm US/Central
Analysis: Will 'Bradley Effect' Doom Obama?
NEW YORK (CBS) ―
-
-
A mural of Barack Obama decorates a wall Oct. 9, 2008, in the Brooklyn Borough of New York City.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
With the first African-American major party nominee running for president, many are asking, will racism play a part on election day? Barack Obama leads in the polls, but historically, so have other minority candidates for other positions, who then lost.
Sociologists call the phenomenon "The Bradley Effect."
When Tom Bradley ran for governor of California in 1982, he had such a lead in the exit polls the San Francisco Chronicle announced he'd won. He didn't.
When Doug Wilder won the gubernatorial election in Virginia in 1989, the percentage of his victory was a fraction of what the polls predicted.
"What you're looking for in the Bradley effect is a difference in the percentage that the candidate has in the polls and the percentage he has received in the election," said Hofstra University political science professor Roseanna Perotti.
Polling expert Mickey Blum said voter bias isn't always just about race.
"I certainly think that age will play a factor and there are at least as many people who are concerned about Sen. McCain's age as there are people who are concerned about Sen. Obama's race," said Blum, a professor at Baruch College.
But most political experts think the Bradley effect, this year, will have little effect.
"When the race of the candidate has not been made an issue in the campaign, then you're less likely to have voters mindful of the factor," Perotti said.
And former Gov. Wilder said recently on Face the Nation it's less about voters afraid to vote for black candidates, and more about how inaccurate science polling can be.
"It happened in my election," Wilder said. "I had double-digit poll numbers. But I want to point to you that in my election my internal polls had me no higher than plus or minus 2 all throughout. I knew it was going to be close."
Pollsters said people are less likely to lie than to simply not speak to them at all, especially if they feel their views are unpopular, or extremely conservative.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
Click to enlarge
Stumble It!
